Login (DCU Staff Only)
Login (DCU Staff Only)

DORAS | DCU Research Repository

Explore open access research and scholarly works from DCU

Advanced Search

Forecasting implied volatility in foreign exchange markets: a functional time series approach

Kearney, Fearghal orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-3251-8707, Cummins, Mark orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-3539-8843 and Murphy, Finbarr orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-7463-7923 (2017) Forecasting implied volatility in foreign exchange markets: a functional time series approach. European Journal of Finance, 24 (1). pp. 1-18. ISSN 0927-5398

Abstract
We utilise novel functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. The FTS model is shown to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical data during the volatile 2006-2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The evaluation is performed under both in-sample and out-of-sample testing frameworks with our findings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic significance of the results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Exchange rates; implied volatility; forecasting; functional data analysis; functional time series
Subjects:Business > Finance
DCU Faculties and Centres:UNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2016.1271441
Copyright Information:© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:24127
Deposited On:10 Jan 2020 16:25 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 21 Feb 2022 13:27
Documents

Full text available as:

[thumbnail of MARK CUMMINS EJOF FOR DORAS.pdf]
Preview
PDF - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
532kB
Downloads

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Archive Staff Only: edit this record