Kearney, Fearghal ORCID: 0000-0002-3251-8707, Cummins, Mark ORCID: 0000-0002-3539-8843 and Murphy, Finbarr ORCID: 0000-0002-7463-7923 (2017) Forecasting implied volatility in foreign exchange markets: a functional time series approach. European Journal of Finance, 24 (1). pp. 1-18. ISSN 0927-5398
Abstract
We utilise novel functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied
volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility
curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. The FTS model is shown
to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical
data during the volatile 2006-2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The
evaluation is performed under both in-sample and out-of-sample testing frameworks with our
findings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic significance of the
results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article (Published) |
---|---|
Refereed: | Yes |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | Exchange rates; implied volatility; forecasting; functional data analysis; functional time series |
Subjects: | Business > Finance |
DCU Faculties and Centres: | UNSPECIFIED |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis (Routledge) |
Official URL: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2016.1271441 |
Copyright Information: | © 2018 Taylor & Francis |
Use License: | This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License |
ID Code: | 24127 |
Deposited On: | 10 Jan 2020 16:25 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 21 Feb 2022 13:27 |
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