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Adapting to uncertainty: Black swans, VUCA challenges and airport resilience strategies

Hiney, Noel orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-2116-7999, Efthymiou, Marina orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-8611-5973 and Morgenroth, Edgar L.W. orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-9442-0561 (2025) Adapting to uncertainty: Black swans, VUCA challenges and airport resilience strategies. Journal of the Air Transport Research Society (JATRS), 4 . pp. 668-675. ISSN 2941-198X

Abstract
Over the past 50 years, air travel and airport passenger numbers have consistently grown, despite setbacks from crises like oil shocks, terrorism and the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-pandemic passenger trends demonstrated the resilience of aviation and airports when recovering from the effects of major crises, notwithstanding the increased future uncertainty caused by geopolitical events since then. Through a combination of airport passenger performance analysis from 2019 to 2023, an airport manager survey undertaken in 2022 and an assessment of events and trends during this period, as reported in the literature and contemporaneously through news and information channels, this paper assesses factors affecting airports during volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) periods, focusing on post-pandemic passenger trends and current challenges. It also explores how airports can enhance resilience through improved processes, efficiency, and stronger stakeholder relationships. We found that smaller airports, in particular, will face revenue pressures, growing competition, and increased dependence on non-aeronautical revenue. State aid, increasingly tied to decarbonisation and digitalisation, will also become more challenging to secure. Linking empirical research findings with actionable strategies to enhance airport resilience and address these issues, we introduce the VUCAIR framework, a strategic model designed to help airports anticipate and respond effectively to ongoing VUCA conditions in the global aviation landscape
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Airport performance; Aviation resilience; Passenger Traffic; VUCA; VUCAIR
Subjects:Business > Assistive computer technology
DCU Faculties and Centres:UNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Springer
Official URL:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:31050
Deposited On:09 May 2025 09:40 by Marina Efthymiou . Last Modified 09 May 2025 09:40
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