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Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty

Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K., Wu, Haoran, Xu, Tongbin and Yang, Min (2024) Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 141 . ISSN 1873-0639

Abstract
We employ various indexes, namely the geopolitical risk (GPR) index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and world uncertainty index (WUI), to comprehensively capture multiple dimensions of risk and uncertainty and investigate their influence on capital flows measured by different categories of mutual fund flows and IMF intercountry transaction flows. We find that GPR harms aggregate capital flows of both equity and bond funds, whereas rising EPU only significantly reduces the capital flows of equity funds. Additionally, WUI increases capital flowing into active bond funds, indicating a flight-to-safety effect. Besides, high GPR environments amplify the negative influence of EPU on capital flows of equity funds. Meanwhile, in more geopolitically stable conditions, bond markets may serve as a preferred shelter for navigating EPU. However, we find that the impacts of risk and uncertainty on transaction flows are marginal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that global risk or uncertainty (EPU and WUI) plays a more dominant role than country-specific ones in shaping capital flows. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into how different dimensions of risk and uncertainty can shape capital flows differently and whether the compounding effect of risk and uncertainty differs from that of a single risk or uncertainty.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Risk and uncertainty, Capital flows, Mutual fund flows, Transaction flows
Subjects:Business > Finance
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:Elsevier Ltd
Official URL:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:32653
Deposited On:18 May 2026 11:08 by Tam Nguyen . Last Modified 18 May 2026 11:08
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