Zhao, Huali
ORCID: 0009-0007-2562-3019, Crane, Martin
ORCID: 0000-0001-7598-3126 and Bezbradica, Marija
ORCID: 0000-0001-9366-5113
(2026)
MSPCIFormer: A Multi‐Scale Patching Channel‐Independent
Transformer for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting.
Expert Systems, 43
(7).
pp. 1-26.
ISSN 1468-0394
(In Press)
Abstract
Forecasting cryptocurrency prices remains challenging due to extreme volatility, regime‐dependent dynamics, and unstable cross‐asset correlations. Statistical methods such as ARIMA and GARCH
assume stationarity and linear dependence structures, making them inadequate for capturing non‐linear temporal patterns in high volatile cryptocurrency data. Conventional machine learning methods often require hand‐crafted features and fail to capture the sequential temporal dependencies inherent in price series. Recurrent deep learning approaches such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and LSTMs address the issues but suffer from limited parallelization, vanishing gradients, and difficulty in learning multi‐scale temporal patterns. The advances in Transformer have demonstrated strong capability in capturing long‐range temporal dependencies through selfattention while enabling parallel computation. However, canonical Transformer still struggle with noisy, volatile financial time series due to computational complexity and sensitivity to irrelevant
temporal patterns. These limitations motivate the exploration of Transformer‐based architectures.
Our study makes three key contributions. First, we propose MSPCIFormer, a novel Transformerbased architecture that integrates multi‐scale patching with channel‐independent (CI) modeling
to capture heterogeneous temporal dynamics while mitigating noise from time‐varying inter‐asset correlations. Second, we conduct comprehensive experiments comparing MSPCIFormer with stateof‐
the‐art Transformer models and strong time‐series forecasting baselines, evaluated using both statistical and economic metrics across multiple forecasting horizons. Third, we establish a unified
evaluation framework incorporating both Hold‐out and Walk‐forward evaluation framework with economical metrics for regime‐robustness testing. Empirical results demonstrate that MSPCIFormer
achieves the best or tied‐best predictive accuracy among all Transformer‐based baselines across three cryptocurrency assets, while maintaining competitive and stable performance across
diverse market regimes.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article (In Press) |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Cardano; channel-independent processing; cryptocurrency price forecasting; multi-scale patching; transformer |
| Subjects: | Computer Science > Artificial intelligence Computer Science > Machine learning |
| DCU Faculties and Centres: | DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing Research Institutes and Centres > ADAPT |
| Publisher: | John Wiley & Sons |
| Official URL: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/exsy.7... |
| Copyright Information: | Authors |
| ID Code: | 32912 |
| Deposited On: | 24 Aug 2026 12:57 by Martin Crane . Last Modified 24 Aug 2026 12:57 |
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