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MSPCIFormer: A Multi‐Scale Patching Channel‐Independent Transformer for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting

Zhao, Huali orcid logoORCID: 0009-0007-2562-3019, Crane, Martin orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-7598-3126 and Bezbradica, Marija orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-9366-5113 (2026) MSPCIFormer: A Multi‐Scale Patching Channel‐Independent Transformer for Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting. Expert Systems, 43 (7). pp. 1-26. ISSN 1468-0394 (In Press)

Abstract
Forecasting cryptocurrency prices remains challenging due to extreme volatility, regime‐dependent dynamics, and unstable cross‐asset correlations. Statistical methods such as ARIMA and GARCH assume stationarity and linear dependence structures, making them inadequate for capturing non‐linear temporal patterns in high volatile cryptocurrency data. Conventional machine learning methods often require hand‐crafted features and fail to capture the sequential temporal dependencies inherent in price series. Recurrent deep learning approaches such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and LSTMs address the issues but suffer from limited parallelization, vanishing gradients, and difficulty in learning multi‐scale temporal patterns. The advances in Transformer have demonstrated strong capability in capturing long‐range temporal dependencies through selfattention while enabling parallel computation. However, canonical Transformer still struggle with noisy, volatile financial time series due to computational complexity and sensitivity to irrelevant temporal patterns. These limitations motivate the exploration of Transformer‐based architectures. Our study makes three key contributions. First, we propose MSPCIFormer, a novel Transformerbased architecture that integrates multi‐scale patching with channel‐independent (CI) modeling to capture heterogeneous temporal dynamics while mitigating noise from time‐varying inter‐asset correlations. Second, we conduct comprehensive experiments comparing MSPCIFormer with stateof‐ the‐art Transformer models and strong time‐series forecasting baselines, evaluated using both statistical and economic metrics across multiple forecasting horizons. Third, we establish a unified evaluation framework incorporating both Hold‐out and Walk‐forward evaluation framework with economical metrics for regime‐robustness testing. Empirical results demonstrate that MSPCIFormer achieves the best or tied‐best predictive accuracy among all Transformer‐based baselines across three cryptocurrency assets, while maintaining competitive and stable performance across diverse market regimes.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (In Press)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Cardano; channel-independent processing; cryptocurrency price forecasting; multi-scale patching; transformer
Subjects:Computer Science > Artificial intelligence
Computer Science > Machine learning
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Research Institutes and Centres > ADAPT
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons
Official URL:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/exsy.7...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:32912
Deposited On:24 Aug 2026 12:57 by Martin Crane . Last Modified 24 Aug 2026 12:57
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