The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU
Lawless, Martina and Morgenroth, Edgar L.W.ORCID: 0000-0002-9442-0561
(2019)
The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU.
Contemporary Social Science, 14
(2).
pp. 189-207.
ISSN 2158-2041
The UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) is likely to have a range of impacts, with
trade flows one of the most immediate areas where the effects will become evident. One possible
outcome of Brexit is a situation where WTO tariffs apply to merchandise trade between the UK and the
EU. By examining detailed trade flows between the UK and all other EU members, matching over 5200
products to the WTO tariff applicable to external EU trade this paper shows that such an outcome would
result in significantly different impacts across countries. Our estimates of exposure at the country level
show an extremely wide range with reductions in trade to the UK falling by 5% (Finland) to 43%
(Bulgaria) taking into account the new tariffs and the elasticity of the trade response to this price
increase. Food and textiles trade are the hardest hit, with trade in these sectors reducing by up to 90%.