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Modelling the medium- to long-term potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Ireland

Bergin, Adele ORCID: 0000-0003-0979-5199, Garcia-Rodriguez, Albian, Morgenroth, Edgar L.W. ORCID: 0000-0002-9442-0561 and Smith, Donal (2017) Modelling the medium- to long-term potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Ireland. Economic and Social Review, 48 (3). pp. 305-316. ISSN 0012-9984

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Abstract

There is almost a complete consensus in the international literature that Brexit will have a negative effect on the UK economy both in the short and long run. The UK is one of Ireland’s closest economic partners and little is known about the potential macroeconomic impact that Brexit could have on the Irish economy. In this paper, we use the new COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy (COSMO) to attempt to quantify the medium- to long-run impact of Brexit on the Irish economy under a series of alternative scenarios. These scenarios are intended to cover a range of potential agreements between the UK and the EU. We find that the level of Irish output is permanently below what it otherwise would have been in the absence of Brexit.

Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Subjects:Business > Economic policy
Business > Economics
DCU Faculties and Centres:UNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Economic & Social Studies
Copyright Information:© 2016
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
Funders:Department of Finance and ESRI Research Programme on The Macroeconomy and Taxation.
ID Code:23550
Deposited On:17 Jul 2019 13:01 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 15 Aug 2019 11:53

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