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‘Catalytic nuclear war’ in the age of artificial intelligence & autonomy: Emerging military technology and escalation risk between nuclear-armed states

Johnson, James ORCID: 0000-0002-5203-8583 (2021) ‘Catalytic nuclear war’ in the age of artificial intelligence & autonomy: Emerging military technology and escalation risk between nuclear-armed states. The Journal of Strategic Studies . ISSN 0140-2390

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Abstract

This article revisits the Cold War-era concept of ‘catalytic nuclear war,’ considered by many as unworkable, and reconceptualizes it in light of technological change, as well as improved understanding of human psychology and other factors. It argues in the modern digital era, the catalyzing chain of reaction and counter-retaliation dynamics set in motion by the deliberate action of a non-state or third-party actor is fast becoming a more accessible and plausible alternative to acquiring a nuclear weapon or manufacturing an improvised atomic device – or ‘dirty bomb.’ The article concludes that artificial intelligence (AI) technology is creating new – and exacerbating old – escalation pathways that risk catalyzing accidental nuclear confrontation between nuclear-armed powers, particularly under irrational (or sub-rational) conditions. Are existing notions of accidental and inadvertent nuclear escalation still relevant in the age of AI and autonomy?

Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Subjects:Social Sciences > International relations
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science > School of Law and Government
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
Official URL:https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1867541
Copyright Information:© 2021 Taylor & Francis
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:25405
Deposited On:25 Jan 2021 17:49 by James Johnson . Last Modified 13 Jul 2022 03:30

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