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Predicting Saudi stock market Index by Incorporating GDELT using multivariate time series modelling

Alamro, Rawan, McCarren, Andrew orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-7297-0984 and Al-Rasheed, Amal (2019) Predicting Saudi stock market Index by Incorporating GDELT using multivariate time series modelling. In: International Conference on Computing (ICC 2019), 10-12 Dec 2019, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. ISBN 978-3-030-36364-2

Abstract
Prediction of financial and economic markets is very challenging but valuable for economists, business owners, and traders. Forecasting stock market prices depends on many factors, such as other markets’ performance, economic state of a country, and others. In behavioral finance, people’s emotions and opinions influence their transactional decisions and therefore the financial markets. The focus of this research is to predict the Saudi Stock Market Index by utilizing its previous values and the impact of people’s sentiments on their financial decisions. Human emotions and opinions are directly influenced by media and news, which we incorporated by utilizing the Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) dataset by Google. GDELT is a collection of news from all over the world from different types of media such as TV, broad- casts, radio, newspapers, and websites. We extracted two time series from GDELT, filtered for Saudi Arabian news. The two time series rep- resent daily values of tone and social media attention. We studied the characteristics of the generated multivariate time series, then deployed and compared multiple multivariate models to predict the daily index of the Saudi stock market.
Metadata
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Event Type:Conference
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Forecasting; Multivariate time series; Behavioral finance; Time series analysis
Subjects:Computer Science > Artificial intelligence
Computer Science > Machine learning
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Published in: Advances in Data Science, Cyber Security and IT Applications. Communications in Computer and Information Science 1097(1). Springer. ISBN 978-3-030-36364-2
Publisher:Springer
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-030-36365-9_26
Copyright Information:© 2019 Springer
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:25442
Deposited On:01 Feb 2021 10:59 by Michael Scriney . Last Modified 01 Feb 2021 10:59
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