A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial
groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario
method
Dominioni, GoranORCID: 0000-0002-3795-2617, Marasco, AddolorataORCID: 0000-0002-8613-7467 and Romano, AlessandroORCID: 0000-0002-2041-5487
(2017)
A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial
groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario
method.
Quality & Quantity, 52
.
pp. 1929-1956.
ISSN 0033-5177
Globalization and migratory fluxes are increasing the ethnic and racial diversity
within many countries. Therefore, describing social dynamics requires models that are apt
to capture multi-groups interactions. Building on the assumption of a relationship between
multi-racial dynamics and socioeconomic status (SES), we introduce an aggregate, con-
textual, and continuous index of SES accounting for measures of income, employment,
expected life, and group numerosity. After, taking into account that groups’ SES assumes
the form of a logit model, we propose a Lotka–Volterra system to study and forecast the
interaction among racial groups. Last, we apply our methodology to describe the racial
dynamics in the US society. In particular, we study the kind and the intensity of Asians–
Blacks–Natives–Whites interactions in the US between 2002 and 2013. Moreover, we
forecast the evolution of groups’ SES and how interracial relations will unfold between
2013 and 2018 and in three alternative stylized scenarios.
Metadata
Item Type:
Article (Published)
Refereed:
Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Racial interactions; Deterministic modeling; Scenario method; Logit
model; Lotka–Volterra systems