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Daily judgement: political news and financial markets

Breen, Michael orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-5857-9938, McMenamin, Iain orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-1704-390X, Courtney, Michael and McNulty, Gemma orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-6909-6958 (2020) Daily judgement: political news and financial markets. New Political Economy, 26 (4). pp. 606-630. ISSN 1356-3467

Abstract
Political economists disagree about the extent to which markets monitor politics in advanced economies. Some argue that investors are interested in a handful of macroeconomic indicators, while others say that markets also watch political competition closely. We argue that political competition drives variation in the government bond market more than information about economic policy. Using a new automatic classifier, we code the content of millions of newspaper paragraphs about the UK from 1986 to 2012. We then test the impact of news on government debt. We find that political news is correlated with bond prices and that macroeconomic policy news is not. Our results suggest that the market passes daily judgement on politics, not merely cleaving to seldom-released official statistics or focusing on occasional events like elections.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:political economy; sovereign debt; economic policy; advanced economies; automatic content analysis
Subjects:Computer Science > Machine learning
Social Sciences > Globalization
Social Sciences > Mass media
Social Sciences > Political science
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science > School of Law and Government
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
Official URL:https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2020.1806221
Copyright Information:© 2020 Taylor & Francis
Funders:Irish Research Council
ID Code:25486
Deposited On:18 Feb 2021 13:22 by Michael Breen . Last Modified 28 Feb 2022 13:46
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