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Short- and very short-term firm-level load forecasting for warehouses: a comparison of machine learning and deep learning models

Ribeiro, Andrea Maria N. C. orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-6697-5412, Carmo, Pedro Rafael X. do orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-7952-3239, Endo, Patricia Takako orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-9163-5583, Rosati, Pierangelo orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-6070-0426 and Lynn, Theo orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-9284-7580 (2022) Short- and very short-term firm-level load forecasting for warehouses: a comparison of machine learning and deep learning models. Energies, 15 (3). ISSN 1996-1073

Abstract
Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type which remain under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering energy performance Citation: Ribeiro, A.M.N.C.; do Carmo, P.R.X.; Endo, P.T.; Rosati, P.; Lynn, T. Short- and Very Short-Term Firm-Level Load Forecasting for Warehouses: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models. Energies 2022, 15, 750. https://doi.org/10.3390/ en15030750 Academic Editors: Filipe Rodrigues and João M. F. Calado Received: 22 December 2021 Accepted: 15 January 2022 Published: 20 January 2022 Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Copyright: © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, andimprovecompetitiveness. ESCOsandwarehouseownersandoperatorsrequireaccurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), RandomForest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperformed other models for both very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) and short-term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:very short-term load forecasting; VSTLF; short-term load forecasting; STLF; deep learning; RNN; LSTM; GRU; SVR; Random Forest; Extreme Gradient Boosting; energy consumption; ARIMA; time series prediction
Subjects:Computer Science > Machine learning
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:MDPI
Official URL:https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15030750
Copyright Information:© 2021 The Authors.
ID Code:27533
Deposited On:10 Aug 2022 17:12 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 24 Mar 2023 10:02
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