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Political opposition versus sources of power in central Asia: A case study of Kazakhstan

Machavariani, Maia (2025) Political opposition versus sources of power in central Asia: A case study of Kazakhstan. PhD thesis, Dublin City University.

This study undertakes a comprehensive examination of the evolution and transformation of political opposition in Kazakhstan over the past three decades. By adopting a tripartite typology introduced by Kazakh political scientist Andrey Chebotarev, the study classifies the chronological development of Kazakh political opposition into three distinct periods: the initial decade of independence (1991-1998) represented through Institutional Opposition, a subsequent phase (1998-2012) focusing on Individual Opposition, and the most recent decade (2012-2022), emphasizing the emergence of Civic Opposition. The primary objective is to shed light on the opposition's developmental path through examining trends, identifying distinctive features, and investigating the complex dynamics of its interaction with the Kazakh regime. The research argues that the evolution and transformation of political opposition in Kazakhstan throughout the past three decades are fundamentally linked to its complex relationship with the governing authorities. Notably, the elimination of Institutional Opposition paved the way for the emergence of Individual Opposition, and subsequently, the eradication of both Institutional and Individual Opposition gave rise to spontaneous forms of opposition activism, particularly in the form of the so called Civic Opposition. This dynamic interplay has not only shaped the regime responses to the opposition's actions, but it has also played an important role in shaping the trajectory and adaptability of Kazakh political opposition, within the diverse landscape of local politics. The central argument of this research states that in the context of Kazakhstan complete eradication of both Institutional and Individual Opposition by the Kazakh regime catalysed the emergence of the Civic Opposition, manifested primarily as unforeseen and uncontrollable instances of widespread public unrests and spontaneous protests, posing a serious threat to the stability and longevity of the Kazakh regime. Although authoritarian regimes may initially seek to remove dissent in order to consolidate power, empirical findings from the case of Kazakhstan suggests that even a vocal opposition can serve as an avenue to address social grievances, while also potentially contributing to regime stability by offering a platform for dissent and preventing large scale mobilisation against the authoritarian regime.
Item Type:Thesis (PhD)
Date of Award:2025
Refereed:No
Supervisor(s):Ó Beacháin, Donnacha
Subjects:Social Sciences > Law
Social Sciences > Political science
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science > School of Law and Government
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License. View License
Funders:Innovative Training Network (ITN) CASPIAN project, generously supported under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Scheme. (Principal Investigator - Donnacha Ó Beacháin), Scholarship from the School of Law and Government, DCU
ID Code:30635
Deposited On:11 Mar 2025 15:09 by Donnacha � Beacháin . Last Modified 11 Mar 2025 15:09

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