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Cryptocurrency Volatility Index: An Efficient Way to Predict the Future CVI

Crane, Martin orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-7598-3126, Nguyen, An Pham Ngoc orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-0041-9747 and Bezbradica, Marija orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-9366-5113 (2023) Cryptocurrency Volatility Index: An Efficient Way to Predict the Future CVI. In: Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science. AICS 2022, 8-9 December, 2022, Tralee, Ireland. ISBN 978-3-031-26438-2

Abstract
The Cryptocurrency Volatility Index (CVI index) has been introduced to estimate the 30-day future volatility of the cryptocurrency market. In this article, we introduce a new Deep Neural Network with an attention mechanism to forecast future values of this index. We then look at the stability and performance of our proposed model against the benchmark models widely used for time series prediction. The results show that our proposed model performs well when compared to popular methods such as traditional Long Short Term Memory, Temporal Convolution Network, and other statistical methods like Simple Moving Average, Random Forest and Support Vector Regression. Furthermore, we show that the well-known Simple Moving Average method, while it has its own advantages, has the weak spot when dealing with time series with large fluctuations.
Metadata
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Event Type:Conference
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Cryptocurrencies; volatility; CVI; LSTM; attention mechanism
Subjects:Computer Science > Algorithms
Computer Science > Computer engineering
Computer Science > Computer networks
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing
DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Research Institutes and Centres > ADAPT
Published in: Communications in Computer and Information Science. 1662. Sage Publications Ltd.. ISBN 978-3-031-26438-2
Publisher:Sage Publications Ltd.
Official URL:https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-03...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:30785
Deposited On:27 Nov 2025 12:38 by Vidatum Academic . Last Modified 27 Nov 2025 12:38
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