Esposito, Francesco and Cummins, Mark (2025) Appraising Model Complexity in Option Pricing. The Journal of Futures Markets, 45 . pp. 455-472. ISSN 1096-9934
Abstract
The research question we consider is whether incremental complexity in option pricing models is justified by incremental model performance. We apply the model confidence set as a formal model comparison approach in appraising stochastic volatility jump‐diffusion option pricing models, spanning affine and nonaffine specifications. Jumps in price with stochastic (constant) arrival intensity produce superior (inferior) outcomes. A parsimonious negative exponential price jump distribution
outperforms the popular normal distribution. Jumps in volatility synchronized or not) worsen model performance. A parsimonious nonlinear hyperbolic drift extension of the Heston model performs particularly well. Nonlinear CEV models generally
do not produce appreciable model performance.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article (Published) |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Affine and nonaffine jump‐diffusion model specifications; model complexity; model confidence set; option pricing models; stochastic volatility |
| Subjects: | Business > Commerce Business > Economic policy Business > Finance |
| DCU Faculties and Centres: | DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School |
| Publisher: | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |
| Official URL: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fut.22... |
| Copyright Information: | Authors |
| ID Code: | 31024 |
| Deposited On: | 02 May 2025 10:12 by Gordon Kennedy . Last Modified 02 May 2025 10:12 |
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