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Appraising Model Complexity in Option Pricing

Esposito, Francesco and Cummins, Mark (2025) Appraising Model Complexity in Option Pricing. The Journal of Futures Markets, 45 . pp. 455-472. ISSN 1096-9934

Abstract
The research question we consider is whether incremental complexity in option pricing models is justified by incremental model performance. We apply the model confidence set as a formal model comparison approach in appraising stochastic volatility jump‐diffusion option pricing models, spanning affine and nonaffine specifications. Jumps in price with stochastic (constant) arrival intensity produce superior (inferior) outcomes. A parsimonious negative exponential price jump distribution outperforms the popular normal distribution. Jumps in volatility synchronized or not) worsen model performance. A parsimonious nonlinear hyperbolic drift extension of the Heston model performs particularly well. Nonlinear CEV models generally do not produce appreciable model performance.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Affine and nonaffine jump‐diffusion model specifications; model complexity; model confidence set; option pricing models; stochastic volatility
Subjects:Business > Commerce
Business > Economic policy
Business > Finance
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Official URL:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fut.22...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:31024
Deposited On:02 May 2025 10:12 by Gordon Kennedy . Last Modified 02 May 2025 10:12
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