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Enhancing Bagging Ensemble Regression with Data Integration for Time Series-Based Diabetes Prediction

Ngo, Vuong M. orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-8793-0504, Tran, Vinh, Kearney, Patricia orcid logoORCID: 0000-0001-9599-3540 and Roantree, Mark orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-1329-2570 (2025) Enhancing Bagging Ensemble Regression with Data Integration for Time Series-Based Diabetes Prediction. In: The 17th Int. Conf. on Computational Collective Intelligence (ICCCI'25), 12-15 November 2025, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. ISBN 978-3-032-09318-9

Abstract
Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disease characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, leading to complications like heart disease, kidney failure, and nerve damage. Accurate state-level predictions are vital for effective healthcare planning and targeted interventions, but in many cases, data for necessary analyses are incomplete. This study begins with a data engineering process to integrate diabetes-related datasets from 2011 to 2021 to create a comprehensive feature set. We then introduce an enhanced bagging ensemble regression model (EBMBag+) for time series forecasting to predict diabetes prevalence across U.S. cities. Several baseline models, including SVMReg, BDTree, LSBoost, NN, LSTM, and ERMBag, were evaluated for comparison with our EBMBag+ algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that EBMBag+ achieved the best performance, with an MAE of 0.41, RMSE of 0.53, MAPE of 4.01, and an R^2 of 0.91.
Metadata
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Event Type:Conference
Refereed:Yes
Additional Information:Core B Ranking
Uncontrolled Keywords:Time Series; Diabetes Prediction
Subjects:Computer Science > Artificial intelligence
Computer Science > Machine learning
Medical Sciences > Diseases
Medical Sciences > Health
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing
DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Published in: Computational Collective Intelligence. ICCCI 2025. Lecture Notes in Computer Science 16138. Springer. ISBN 978-3-032-09318-9
Publisher:Springer
Official URL:https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-03...
Copyright Information:Authors
Funders:Taighde Éireann – Research Ireland under Grant numbers 22/NCF/DR/11244 and 12/RC/2289_P2.
ID Code:32009
Deposited On:15 Dec 2025 11:22 by Vuong M Ngo . Last Modified 15 Dec 2025 11:22
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