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Drivers of firm-level tail dependence: A machine learning approach

Conlon, Thomas, Cotter, John and Ropotos, Ioannis orcid logoORCID: 0009-0008-7777-5804 (2026) Drivers of firm-level tail dependence: A machine learning approach. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 182 . ISSN 1879-1743

Abstract
The paper studies the determinants of firm-level tail dependence of companies with respect to foreign markets using machine learning. We measure dependence for a comprehensive international set of firms using copulas and we find that left tail dependence is consistently stronger than right tail dependence with their gap widening in recessionary periods. We then apply random forest regressions to identify and characterize the factors that account for the total panel variation of tail risk. The World Uncertainty Index, the R2 integration measure and coskewness with respect to foreign markets are the most important determinants. For US firms individual ownership variables such as the number of total or foreign investors dominate the remaining firm-level characteristics in explaining tail dependence. Our results contribute to the understanding of crash risk in the modern global financial landscape with implications for asset managers.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Firm-level tail dependence; Copulas; Determinants; Random forest regression; Machine learning; Shapley values
Subjects:Computer Science > Artificial intelligence
Computer Science > Machine learning
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:Elsevier
Official URL:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:32678
Deposited On:21 May 2026 14:50 by Tam Nguyen . Last Modified 21 May 2026 14:50
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