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CDS approximation accuracy improvement with CART and random forest algorithms based on a time span including the COVID-19 pandemic period

Mercadier, Mathieu (2022) CDS approximation accuracy improvement with CART and random forest algorithms based on a time span including the COVID-19 pandemic period. In: Zopounidis, Constantin, Girard-Guerraud, Carine and Bouaiss, Karima, (eds.) Recent Trends in Financial Engineering: Towards More Sustainable Social Impact. World Scientific, New Jersey, pp. 39-63. ISBN 978-981-12-6048-3

Abstract
This study uses decision tree and random forest regressions to improve the accuracy of an approximation of credit default swap (CDS) spreads called the Equity-to-Credit (E2C) formula based on a time span including the COVID-19 pandemic period. Certain sections are dedicated to explaining deeper important concepts in machine learning. Random forest regressions run with the E2C and selected additional financial data results in an accuracy in CDS approximations of 82% out-of-sample. The transparency property of these algorithms confirms that, for CDS spreads’ forecasting, the most used feature is the E2C formula and to a lower extent companies’ debt rating and size.
Metadata
Item Type:Book Section
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Capital structure, credit default swap, COVID-19 pandemic, financial markets, machine learning
Subjects:Business > Electronic commerce
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:World Scientific
Official URL:https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/978981...
Copyright Information:Author
ID Code:32779
Deposited On:09 Jun 2026 14:36 by Tam Nguyen . Last Modified 09 Jun 2026 14:36
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