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Forecasting the impact of ICT on the public sphere

Bannister, Frank and Connolly, Regina orcid logoORCID: 0000-0003-3196-2889 (2019) Forecasting the impact of ICT on the public sphere. Government Information Quarterly ABS3, 37 (1). ISSN 0740-624X

The American baseball play Yogi Berra once observed that “The future ain’t what it used to be”. Berra's colourful expression states a fundamental truth: the future as we perceive it today is, more often than not, not how it was perceived in the past. The proof is in the chequered history of forecasting in every field from politics to technology. e-Government and e-democracy are no exceptions. In this article we examine the problem of inaccurate forecasting of the impact of ICT in the public sector. To do this, we use a typology of forecast failure and then use this typology to examine three case of inaccurate forecasts of the impact of e-government and e-democracy over the past 25 years and ask why these predictions were wrong. Drawing on the lessons from these examples and others, we propose a series of steps/actions that can help to reduce the probability of such errors occurring in the future.
Item Type:Article (Published)
Uncontrolled Keywords:e-Government; e-Democracy; Forecasting; Error; ICT; Public sector
Subjects:Business > Electronic commerce
Business > Management
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2019.101410
Copyright Information:© 2019 Elsevier
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:24152
Deposited On:20 Jan 2020 10:09 by Regina Connolly . Last Modified 18 Sep 2021 03:30

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