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Insurance Risk Premium Development with Model Risk

Kim, Minkun orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-3374-4132 (2025) Insurance Risk Premium Development with Model Risk. PhD thesis, Dublin City University.

Abstract
Accurate risk premium prediction is critical for competitiveness and growth in general insurance business. Traditional approaches focus on clustering risks into well-defined groups to improve prediction accuracy, but practical challenges such as poorly defined risk classes and unexpected model risks complicate this process. This thesis tackles diverse model risks in risk premium prediction using a Bayesian framework. Unlike classical actuarial methods that rely solely on data, Bayesian models incorporate parameter knowledge, offering flexibility in handling erroneous data issue. We leverage this advantage to link Bayesian parametric/ nonparametric frameworks with state-of-art strategies for managing incomplete data issues, such as Missingness at Random (MAR) and Non-Differential Berkson (NDB) mismeasurement. Additionally, we address other key analytical challenges, including heterogeneity, convolution, and scalability. The first part of this thesis focuses on Bayesian parametric frameworks, comparing Bayesian partial pooling with traditional error correction method such as Simulation Extrapolation (SIMEX). The second part extends to the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) framework, investigating the efficiency of Bayesian parameter-free clustering while addressing incomplete data using techniques such as data augmentation and Gustafson correction. We develop a hybrid Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model and compare it with Bayesian hierarchical models and other classical actuarial approaches. The originality of this thesis lies in leveraging existing state-of-the-art approaches and pushing the boundaries of their applicability to a broader analytical framework, encompassing challenges such as heterogeneity, convolution error, scalability, missingness, and mismeasurement. Based on the combined use of Bayesian parametric and nonparametric models trained on multiple insurance datasets, a critical insight from our study is that correction performance depends on the alignment between two conditional variances in the Gustafson framework—one conditioned on the true covariate and the other on the chosen covariate to approximate the true covariate. We introduce the concept of a scaling factor for the first time to measure this alignment, applying it in calibrating the MCMC simulations. Overall, we believe that this thesis enhances the practical application of Bayesian tools for actuaries. Key innovations include: 1. Integrating data augmentation and Gustafson correction with Bayesian predictive modeling frameworks, leveraging unique prior knowledge of variance in the correction process. 2. Introducing log-normal and log-skewnormal convolution techniques for risk premium modeling, enhancing theoretical reliability. 3. Marking the first instance of integrating advanced Bayesian techniques with scalable methodologies tailored for risk premium prediction.
Metadata
Item Type:Thesis (PhD)
Date of Award:14 April 2025
Refereed:No
Supervisor(s):Crane, Martin and Bezbradica, Marija
Uncontrolled Keywords:Insurance Risk Modelling, Bayesian hierarchical model; heterogeneity; non-differential Berkson measurement error; aggregate insurance claim; risk premium; partial pooling; Gustafson correction
Subjects:Computer Science > Artificial intelligence
Mathematics
Mathematics > Mathematical models
Mathematics > Probabilities
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Research Institutes and Centres > ADAPT
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License. View License
Funders:Science Foundation Ireland under Grant Agreement No.13/RC/2106 P2 at the ADAPT SFI Research Centre at DCU
ID Code:30936
Deposited On:21 Nov 2025 13:47 by Martin Crane . Last Modified 21 Nov 2025 13:47
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