Olar, Roman-Gabriel and Baturo, Alexander
ORCID: 0000-0002-1108-5287
(2026)
Reshuffles or Dismissals? The Logic of Elite Management and Autocratic Survival.
World Politics, 78
(2).
pp. 207-250.
ISSN 1086-3338
Abstract
Co-optation and repression are central to understanding authoritarian power-sharing, but how autocrats implement these strategies with individual elites remains underexplored. We propose a theoretical framework conceptualizing dictators as managers of their ruling coalitions, who routinely appoint, dismiss, promote, demote, shuffle, or reappoint elites for a mixture of strategic, non-strategic, even mundane reasons. We argue that autocrats have agency in choosing between dismissals and reshuffles as general elite management strategies. In the
process, they alter the information environment and elite incentives, with consequences for their own survival. While dismissals as a policy reduce elites’ power, they also increase intraregime conflict and uncertainty, with adverse effects on ruler's survival. In contrast, reshuffles prevent coordination but ensure elites have a stake in regime continuity. We test this argument using novel measures of dismissals and reshuffles in autocratic regimes and communist Politburos, also considering mechanisms and alternative explanations. Our findings suggest
that autocratic survival relies on more mundane elite management than seen in predominantly conflictual accounts of authoritarian politics.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article (Published) |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Authoritarian politics; elites; survival in dictatorships; dismissals; purge; reshuffles |
| Subjects: | Social Sciences > Law Social Sciences > Political science Social Sciences > Social psychology Social Sciences > Public administration |
| DCU Faculties and Centres: | DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science > School of Law and Government |
| Publisher: | Johns Hopkins University Press |
| Official URL: | https://muse.jhu.edu/article/987802 |
| Copyright Information: | Authors |
| ID Code: | 32545 |
| Deposited On: | 01 May 2026 09:39 by Vidatum Academic . Last Modified 01 May 2026 09:39 |
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