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Reshuffles or Dismissals? The Logic of Elite Management and Autocratic Survival

Olar, Roman-Gabriel and Baturo, Alexander orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-1108-5287 (2026) Reshuffles or Dismissals? The Logic of Elite Management and Autocratic Survival. World Politics, 78 (2). pp. 207-250. ISSN 1086-3338

Abstract
Co-optation and repression are central to understanding authoritarian power-sharing, but how autocrats implement these strategies with individual elites remains underexplored. We propose a theoretical framework conceptualizing dictators as managers of their ruling coalitions, who routinely appoint, dismiss, promote, demote, shuffle, or reappoint elites for a mixture of strategic, non-strategic, even mundane reasons. We argue that autocrats have agency in choosing between dismissals and reshuffles as general elite management strategies. In the process, they alter the information environment and elite incentives, with consequences for their own survival. While dismissals as a policy reduce elites’ power, they also increase intraregime conflict and uncertainty, with adverse effects on ruler's survival. In contrast, reshuffles prevent coordination but ensure elites have a stake in regime continuity. We test this argument using novel measures of dismissals and reshuffles in autocratic regimes and communist Politburos, also considering mechanisms and alternative explanations. Our findings suggest that autocratic survival relies on more mundane elite management than seen in predominantly conflictual accounts of authoritarian politics.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Authoritarian politics; elites; survival in dictatorships; dismissals; purge; reshuffles
Subjects:Social Sciences > Law
Social Sciences > Political science
Social Sciences > Social psychology
Social Sciences > Public administration
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science
DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Science > School of Law and Government
Publisher:Johns Hopkins University Press
Official URL:https://muse.jhu.edu/article/987802
Copyright Information:Authors
ID Code:32545
Deposited On:01 May 2026 09:39 by Vidatum Academic . Last Modified 01 May 2026 09:39
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