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Worst-case portfolio optimization in a market with bubbles

Belak, Christoph, Christensen, Sören and Menkens, Olaf (2016) Worst-case portfolio optimization in a market with bubbles. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19 (2). p. 1650009. ISSN 1793-6322

Abstract
We investigate a utility maximization problem in the presence of asset price bubbles. At random times, the investor receives warnings that a bubble has formed in the market which may lead to a crash in the risky asset. We propose a regime switching model for the warnings and we make no assumptions about the distribution of the timing and the size of the crashes. Instead, we assume that the investor takes a worst-case perspective towards their impacts, i.e. the investor maximizes her expected utility under the worst-case crash scenario. We characterize the value function by a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations and derive a coupled system of ordinary differential equations for the optimal strategies. Numerical examples are provided.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:optimal investment; market crashes; worst-case scenario; regime switching; financial bubbles
Subjects:Business > Finance
Mathematics > Probabilities
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Science and Health > School of Mathematical Sciences
Publisher:World Scientific
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0219024916500096
Copyright Information:© 2016 World Scientific
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
Funders:SFI
ID Code:21135
Deposited On:07 Apr 2016 08:33 by Olaf Menkens . Last Modified 19 Jul 2018 15:08
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