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Gas storage valuation under multifactor Lévy processes

Cummins, Mark orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-3539-8843, Kiely, Greg and Murphy, Bernard orcid logoORCID: 0000-0003-3423-3542 (2018) Gas storage valuation under multifactor Lévy processes. Journal of Banking & Finance, 95 . pp. 167-184. ISSN 0378-4266

Abstract
A practical problem for energy companies is instituting a consistent framework across its supply and trading activities to deliver on all-important P&L and at-Risk reporting requirements. With a focus on storage assets and wider natural gas market exposures, we present a gas storage valuation methodology, which uniquely uses a flexible multifactor Lévy process setting that allows for consistent valuation and risk management reporting across a general derivative book. Our approach is capable of replicating the complex covariance structure of the natural gas forward curve and capturing time spread volatility, a key driver of extrinsic storage value, while being simultaneously capable of accurately calibrating to market traded options. We begin by extending a single factor Mean Reverting Variance Gamma process to an arbitrary number of dimensions and, by way of specific examples, show how the traditional Principal Component Analysis based view of gas forward curve dynamics can be incorporated into a primarily market based valuation. We develop in the process an innovative implied moments based calibration technique, which allows for efficient calibration of general multifactor forward curve models to delivery period options common in energy and commodity markets. Furthermore, to accommodate the forward curve and traded options market consistency, we propose an appropriate joint market based calibration and historical estimation methodology. Through a formal model specification analysis, we provide evidence that the multifactor Lévy models we propose provide a better joint fit to NBP natural gas options-forward market data, relative to comparative benchmark models. Finally, we develop a novel multidimensional fast Fourier transform based storage valuation algorithm and provide empirical evidence that the multifactor Lévy model suite is better specified to more accurately capture extrinsic value.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:gas storage valuation; multifactor Lévy processes; Mean Reverting Variance Gamma processes; implied moments calibration; fast Fourier transform.
Subjects:Business > Accounting
Business > Finance
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:Elsevier
Official URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.02.012
Copyright Information:© 2018 Elsevier
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:24119
Deposited On:10 Jan 2020 13:06 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 25 Nov 2022 12:47
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