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Obtaining quantitative information from time series patterns: Insights from SAX, MDL and the Matrix Profile

Cartwright, Eoin orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-8870-9772 (2024) Obtaining quantitative information from time series patterns: Insights from SAX, MDL and the Matrix Profile. PhD thesis, Dublin City University.

Abstract
In the contemporary trading environment any competitive advantage is of core interest to technical traders and financial analysts. Motifs (i.e. time series patterns corresponding to repetitive behaviours) can be indicative of periods of auto regression and are often used for the identification of common trading patterns in financial series, broadly spanning market sectors and asset classes. Widely believed to have predictive value, the identification of these patterns may trigger a collective response by traders leading to overall market movements as a result. The task of motif discovery has attracted considerable attention in the literature, leading to significant recent improvements in terms of efficiency and scalability. However, to date these motif discovery algorithms, even those of variable length, identify sub-sequences of equal match side-length. Here we propose the concept of a side-length independent motif (SLIM) approach, where identification of similar behaviour is still achieved while permitting a length variability between each side of a motif match pair. SLIM facilitates the identification by traders of common financial patterns (such as Head & Shoulders for example), occurring over differing time horizons, thus extending pattern recognition possibilities and investment opportunities. Volatility patterns in financial series are also a primary focus, not only to traders but also more broadly to policy makers and economists, as it is considered analogous to market risk. Through analysis of compression rates, achieved by application of the minimum description length (MDL) principle to SAX representations of financial series, SLIM can also provide further insight into such volatility in the financial sector. Expressed as a percentage, SLIM allows the volatility of series across asset classes and differing time horizons to be visually and directly compared. In this thesis, a new algorithm entitled SLIM is introduced, which extends existing leading algorithms in the literature. The side-length independence concept of SLIM is outlined with its strengths and weaknesses discussed. A set of case studies is also presented throughout, highlighting specific financial applications and detailing the advantageous properties of SLIM for pattern recognition and volatility analysis. Results are discussed in detail while improvements and potential future directions of SLIM are also outlined.
Metadata
Item Type:Thesis (PhD)
Date of Award:August 2024
Refereed:No
Supervisor(s):Crane, Martin and Ruskin, Heather J.
Uncontrolled Keywords:Time Series Analysis, Motifs, Matrix Profiles, Volatility
Subjects:Computer Science > Machine learning
Engineering > Signal processing
Physical Sciences > Statistical physics
Mathematics > Economics, Mathematical
Mathematics > Mathematical models
Mathematics > Numerical analysis
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing
Research Institutes and Centres > Scientific Computing and Complex Systems Modelling (Sci-Sym)
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License. View License
ID Code:30047
Deposited On:18 Nov 2024 11:24 by Martin Crane . Last Modified 18 Nov 2024 11:24
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