Kim, Minkun ORCID: 0000-0002-3374-4132, Bezbradica, Marija ORCID: 0000-0001-9366-5113 and Crane, Martin ORCID: 0000-0001-7598-3126 (2024) Bayesian Hierarchical Risk Premium Modeling with Model Risk: Addressing Non-Differential Berkson Error. Applied Sciences, 15 (1). ISSN 2076-3417
Abstract
In general insurance pricing, aligning losses with accurate premiums is
crucial for insurance companies’ competitiveness. Traditional actuarial
models often face challenges like data heterogeneity and mismeasured
covariates, leading to misspecification bias. This paper addresses these issues from a Bayesian perspective, exploring connections between Bayesian hierarchical modeling, partial pooling techniques, and Gustafson correction method for mismeasured covariates. We focus on Non-Differential Berkson (NDB) mismeasurement and propose an approach that corrects such errors without relying on gold standard data. We discover the unique prior knowledge regarding the variance of the NDB errors, and utilize it to adjust the biased parameter estimates built upon the NDB covariate. Using simulated datasets developed with varying error rate scenarios, we demonstrate the superiority of Bayesian methods in correcting parameter estimates. However, our modeling process highlights the challenge in accurately identifying the variance of NDB errors. This emphasizes the need for a thorough sensitivity analysis of the relationship between our prior knowledge of NDB error variance and varying error rate scenarios.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article (Published) |
---|---|
Refereed: | Yes |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian hierarchical model; heterogeneity; non-differential Berkson measurement error; aggregate insurance claim; risk premium; partial pooling; Gustafson correction |
Subjects: | Computer Science > Artificial intelligence Computer Science > Machine learning Mathematics Mathematics > Mathematical models |
DCU Faculties and Centres: | DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Engineering and Computing > School of Computing Research Institutes and Centres > Scientific Computing and Complex Systems Modelling (Sci-Sym) Research Institutes and Centres > ADAPT |
Publisher: | MDPI |
Official URL: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/1/210 |
Funders: | Science Foundation Ireland under Grant Agreement No.13/RC/2106 P2 at the ADAPT SFI Research Centre at DCU |
ID Code: | 30616 |
Deposited On: | 07 Jan 2025 11:20 by Martin Crane . Last Modified 07 Jan 2025 11:20 |
Documents
Full text available as:
Preview |
PDF (MinkunKim_NDB_paper)
- Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 9MB |
Metrics
Altmetric Badge
Dimensions Badge
Downloads
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
Archive Staff Only: edit this record